DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chimera Esports
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 7 games
Muertasignature
OneJey · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Panto · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 4 games
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 525 bans
Muerta
401 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 573 bans
Lion
347 picks · 173 bans
Batrider
341 picks · 428 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 780 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 477 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 50%
Hero pool strength68% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:4
Chimera Esports 79%Winter Bear 21%
The model gave 79% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 18:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistTA2000
Dark WillowjAMES
Storm SpiritLorenof
EnigmaDaxak
PhoenixPanto
Shadow DemonOneJey
Game 2prediction correct36:12
Chimera Esports 77%Winter Bear 23%
The model gave 77% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingLorenof
HoodwinkjAMES
Void SpiritTA2000
EnigmaDaxak
Bounty HunterOneJey
Shadow DemonPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 90%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2