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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Türkiyeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 27 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 26 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 23 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%

Team Türkiye

Lich
Lich
Stoic · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
G.T.I · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 6 games
83%
Invoker
Invokersignature
G.T.I · 6 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 522 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
400 picks · 326 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 385 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 572 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
347 picks · 171 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
340 picks · 426 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 777 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 473 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
Tundra Esports 85%Team Türkiye 15%
The model gave 85% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 21:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
59% · 33 games48% · 336 games
GyrocopterRetsu
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
53% · 195 games46% · 383 games
PangolierG.T.I
Pangolier
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
52% · 188 games48% · 361 game
HoodwinkJeezy
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
56% · 289 games52% · 49 games
OracleStoic
Oracle
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
44% · 424 games
Game 2prediction correct29:3
Tundra Esports 86%Team Türkiye 14%
The model gave 86% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 13:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
53% · 73 games54% · 158 games
InvokerG.T.I
Invoker
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
48% · 39 games35% · 40 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
46% · 74 games50% · 117 games
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
55% · 138 games48% · 73 games
LichStoic
Lich
Chen
ChenWhitemon
55% · 64 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 97%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2