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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 20 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 20 games
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 19 games
74%
Underlord
Underlord
Ace · 17 games
53%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 16 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 13 games
54%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 35 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 21 game
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 18 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 522 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
400 picks · 326 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 385 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 572 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
347 picks · 171 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
340 picks · 426 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 777 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 473 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:27
Gaimin Gladiators 73%Passion UA 27%
The model gave 73% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
41% · 167 games52% · 199 games
Tinyniche
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritQuinn
51% · 143 games59% · 110 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAce
74% · 15 games51% · 24 games
SpectreCrystallize
Spectre
Muerta
MuertatOfu
48% · 247 games48% · 166 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Lich
LichSeleri
48% · 94 games47% · 167 games
Phoenixkreker
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct50:39
Gaimin Gladiators 75%Passion UA 25%
The model gave 75% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:02:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
50% · 141 game46% · 283 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
47% · 149 games44% · 129 games
Earth Spiritniche
Earth Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
50% · 399 games54% · 191 game
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassintOfu
59% · 106 games48% · 170 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Lich
LichSeleri
46% · 83 games57% · 105 games
Ogre Magikreker
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 90%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2