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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Jigglinloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 35 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 33 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 32 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 26 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 22 games
50%

Jigglin

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Se · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
423 · 1 game
100%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Copy · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 515 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
397 picks · 325 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 383 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 571 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
344 picks · 169 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
336 picks · 424 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 771 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 467 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:14
AVULUS 70%Jigglin 30%
The model gave 70% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
56% · 254 games40% · 248 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
58% · 120 games43% · 108 games
DawnbreakerMinD_ContRoL
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
54% · 476 games44% · 418 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
61% · 181 game43% · 382 games
BatriderLelis
Batrider
Lion
LionEkki
57% · 393 games44% · 268 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct42:27
AVULUS 68%Jigglin 32%
The model gave 68% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
54% · 172 games40% · 18 games
Meepo423
Meepo
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
51% · 346 games55% · 89 games
SniperCopy
Sniper
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
55% · 116 games50% · 225 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
57% · 102 games44% · 304 games
BatriderSe
Batrider
Lich
LichSoNNeikO
50% · 75 games42% · 175 games
TuskLelis
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 79%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2