PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Young Bloodwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
InterActive Philippines
No games played over 6 months.
Young Blood
Earthshaker
MamangDaya · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Red · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
LOyd · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
408 picks · 513 bans
Muerta
397 picks · 322 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 569 bans
Lion
344 picks · 166 bans
Batrider
335 picks · 421 bans
Beastmaster
332 picks · 768 bans
Gyrocopter
313 picks · 467 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Young Blood
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% InterActive Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:32
InterActive Philippines 54%Young Blood 46%
The model gave 54% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by Young Blood in 21:26.
Game 2prediction correct43:16
InterActive Philippines 54%Young Blood 46%
The model gave 54% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 34:51.
Game 3prediction missed39:17
InterActive Philippines 54%Young Blood 46%
The model gave 54% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by Young Blood in 32:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteInterActive Philippines · 54%
Series resultYoung Blood 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3