DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Advance Esportsloss 0:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
KBKodiak Bearswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Kodiak Bears
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
408 picks · 513 bans
Muerta
397 picks · 322 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 569 bans
Lion
344 picks · 166 bans
Batrider
335 picks · 421 bans
Beastmaster
332 picks · 768 bans
Gyrocopter
313 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Advance Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Advance Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Advance Esports 53%Kodiak Bears 47%
The model gave 53% on Advance Esports — the game was taken by Kodiak Bears.
Model check result
Model favoriteAdvance Esports · 53%
Series resultKodiak Bears 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1