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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ascent Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 26 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xm · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%

Ascent Esports

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TrazaM · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
TrazaM · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
TrazaM · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
czy · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 511 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
396 picks · 322 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 569 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
341 picks · 166 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
335 picks · 419 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
330 picks · 764 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 463 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:2
Xtreme Gaming 86%Ascent Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 15:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlou
47% · 17 games52% · 110 games
Templar AssassinMangO
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
52% · 178 games51% · 193 games
Clockwerk出省
Clockwerk
Brewmaster
Brewmasterniu
52% · 141 game47% · 198 games
HoodwinkTrazaM
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
52% · 40 games
Pugna
PugnaPoloson
45% · 125 games
Game 2prediction correct21:3
Xtreme Gaming 85%Ascent Esports 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 16:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
41% · 105 games59% · 134 games
MiranaMangO
Mirana
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
40% · 76 games55% · 270 games
LionTrazaM
Lion
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXm
56% · 28 games51% · 16 games
Abaddon出省
Abaddon
Muerta
MuertaPyw
35% · 86 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
49% · 125 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 97%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2