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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
76%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 17 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 17 games
82%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 19 games
58%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
41%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 16 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 511 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
396 picks · 322 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 569 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
341 picks · 166 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
335 picks · 419 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
330 picks · 764 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 463 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:6
BOOM Esports 41%Talon Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
49% · 241 game46% · 52 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingMac
56% · 155 games49% · 304 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
47% · 182 games48% · 193 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixJaunuel
48% · 229 games59% · 166 games
ChenKuku
Chen
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTims
43% · 157 games53% · 249 games
LionJhocam
Lion
Game 2prediction missed36:7
BOOM Esports 43%Talon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinJaCkky
53% · 130 games52% · 152 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMac
48% · 110 games40% · 16 games
SpectreNatsumi
Spectre
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFbz
48% · 30 games53% · 59 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTims
48% · 83 games46% · 56 games
LichKuku
Lich
Pugna
PugnaJaunuel
54% · 115 games49% · 185 games
LionJhocam
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 62%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2