DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 9 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Muerta
Genek · 8 games
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
Ogre Magisignature
Gardick · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 27 games
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 25 games
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 21 game
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 16 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 15 games
Hoodwink
Scofield · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 511 bans
Muerta
394 picks · 320 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 383 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 567 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
334 picks · 417 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 759 bans
Gyrocopter
310 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Hokori 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawSacred
BloodseekerYuma
PangolierDarkMago
BristlebackWisper
UrsaLumière
Earth Spirit4nalog
MuertaGenek
HoodwinkScofield
BatriderGardick
ChenKJ
Game 2prediction correct18:33
Hokori 35%Heroic 65%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterLumière
BeastmasterWisper
DawnbreakerSacred
Dragon KnightYuma
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Earth Spirit4nalog
MorphlingGenek
Skywrath MageScofield
Ogre MagiGardick
EnchantressKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 78%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2