DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LFLooking for Orgwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M80
Snapfire
Elmisho · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 23 games
Phoenix
MoOz · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 16 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 14 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 24 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 21 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
Doomsignature
Sacred · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 509 bans
Muerta
393 picks · 319 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 383 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 567 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 416 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 757 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 455 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
M80 53%Looking for Org 47%
The model gave 53% on M80 — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkK1
Morphlingpayk
DawnbreakerILICH-
BristlebackVitaly
PugnaMoOz
EarthshakerPiPi
TuskElmisho
MuertaMatthew
53% · 85 games
Ogre MagiYadomi
Game 2prediction correct8:25
M80 49%Looking for Org 51%
The model gave 51% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 29:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinK1
Terrorbladepayk
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
LycanVitaly
Skywrath MageElmisho
Earth SpiritPiPi
LichMoOz
PhoenixYadomi
62% · 106 games
Shadow DemonMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 55%
Series resultLooking for Org 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2