PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Jigglinloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chimera Esports
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 7 games
Muertasignature
OneJey · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Panto · 4 games
Jigglin
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Se · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Razoroften banned
423 · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 509 bans
Muerta
393 picks · 318 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 567 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 414 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 757 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 453 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 75%
Hero pool strength58% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:30
Chimera Esports 69%Jigglin 31%
The model gave 69% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 50:23.
Game 2prediction correct28:28
Chimera Esports 69%Jigglin 31%
The model gave 69% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 55:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 69%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2