PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xxanblloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
393 picks · 318 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 566 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 413 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 757 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Ban9PivoSamogon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% xanbl
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:17
Ban9PivoSamogon 44%xanbl 56%
The model gave 56% on xanbl — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 35:14.
Game 2prediction missed27:44
Ban9PivoSamogon 44%xanbl 56%
The model gave 56% on xanbl — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 36:36.
Model check result
Model favoritexanbl · 56%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2