PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TT Teamloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TT Team
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Nemiga Gaming
Snapfire
Shishak · 14 games
Hoodwink
Shishak · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 11 games
Sven
Lowskill · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
forcemajor · 7 games
Jakiro
forcemajor · 7 games
Slardaroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
393 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 566 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 412 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 757 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 34%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:40
TT Team 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by TT Team in 36:36.
Game 2prediction correct0:0
TT Team 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 51:59.
Game 3prediction correct39:19
TT Team 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 61%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3