PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Jigglinwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHenkeKingOfSwedenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Jigglin
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Se · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Razoroften banned
423 · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Copy · 1 game
HenkeKingOfSweden
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
393 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 566 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 412 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 757 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Jigglin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Jigglin
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:34
Jigglin 88%HenkeKingOfSweden 12%
The model gave 88% on Jigglin — the game was taken by Jigglin in 16:50.
Game 2prediction correct41:12
Jigglin 88%HenkeKingOfSweden 12%
The model gave 88% on Jigglin — the game was taken by Jigglin in 18:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteJigglin · 88%
Series resultJigglin 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2