PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5A5 AMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chimera Esports
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 7 games
Muertasignature
OneJey · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Panto · 4 games
5 AM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
402 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
392 picks · 316 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 563 bans
Lion
338 picks · 162 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 406 bans
Beastmaster
328 picks · 753 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 444 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength66% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:28
Chimera Esports 89%5 AM 11%
The model gave 89% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 43:03.
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Chimera Esports 89%5 AM 11%
The model gave 89% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 32:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 89%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2