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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 16 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 14 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mirage · 13 games
46%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
400 picks · 508 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
390 picks · 310 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 380 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 562 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
335 picks · 161 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
332 picks · 406 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
323 picks · 750 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 435 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:26
HULIGANI 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:01:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
48% · 265 games45% · 17 games
Wraith KingShad
Wraith King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
44% · 229 games49% · 135 games
DawnbreakerBOOM
Dawnbreaker
Puck
PuckMirage
52% · 225 games45% · 322 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Muerta
Muertaqueezy
49% · 245 games53% · 344 games
TinySancity
Tiny
Chen
ChenRESPECT
62% · 111 games50% · 257 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 2prediction correct22:51
HULIGANI 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 50:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
51% · 188 games52% · 276 games
TinyBOOM
Tiny
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAlberkaaa
48% · 229 games44% · 178 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
53% · 350 games51% · 138 games
DoomShad
Doom
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinqueezy
52% · 126 games50% · 174 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Lich
LichRESPECT
50% · 75 games48% · 202 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct8:31
HULIGANI 45%Natus Vincere 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
47% · 157 games50% · 188 games
DoomShad
Doom
Puck
PuckMirage
47% · 241 game47% · 213 games
PhoenixBOOM
Phoenix
Enigma
EnigmaAlberkaaa
55% · 156 games53% · 142 games
Monkey KingSancity
Monkey King
Lion
Lionqueezy
52% · 274 games47% · 40 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
50% · 63 games52% · 308 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3