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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
76%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 17 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 16 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 14 games
93%

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Oli · 14 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
31%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
398 picks · 510 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
389 picks · 310 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 380 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 563 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
332 picks · 403 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
332 picks · 161 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
323 picks · 748 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 432 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total58% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:22
BOOM Esports 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 56:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
45% · 185 games56% · 168 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
Doom
DoomFbz
50% · 252 games48% · 179 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
51% · 77 games51% · 246 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixJaunuel
48% · 305 games50% · 219 games
MuertaQ
Muerta
Lion
LionTims
54% · 303 games47% · 310 games
ClockwerkOli
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct13:36
BOOM Esports 49%Aurora Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 45:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFbz
47% · 23 games55% · 25 games
SpectrePalos
Spectre
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightJaCkky
43% · 72 games52% · 230 games
Dragon KnightAbed
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusMac
50% · 189 games45% · 100 games
DawnbreakerJabz
Dawnbreaker
Mirana
MiranaJaunuel
49% · 105 games51% · 227 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Lion
LionTims
54% · 242 games49% · 49 games
LichOli
Lich
Game 3prediction correct37:38
BOOM Esports 47%Aurora Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 58:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusFbz
48% · 182 games52% · 271 game
PuckAbed
Puck
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
51% · 242 games55% · 40 games
SpectrePalos
Spectre
Tiny
TinyMac
50% · 306 games48% · 271 game
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Lion
LionTims
55% · 227 games51% · 348 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Bane
BaneJaunuel
50% · 62 games43% · 89 games
LichOli
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 58%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3