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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 3 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
slimeyao · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
100%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 22 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
48%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
399 picks · 509 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
388 picks · 308 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 561 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
331 picks · 403 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
331 picks · 159 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
324 picks · 745 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
307 picks · 431 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:28
ASAKURA 46%One Move 54%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 1:04:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
53% · 236 games46% · 212 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterPalantimos
54% · 204 games54% · 281 game
TinyDifference
Tiny
Slark
Slark7jesu
42% · 79 games51% · 157 games
MagnusSSS
Magnus
Lich
Lichso bad
43% · 104 games52% · 156 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Lion
Lionslimeyao
51% · 398 games54% · 215 games
Shadow DemonJANTER
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct15:28
ASAKURA 46%One Move 54%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linayoung G
44% · 158 games51% · 315 games
Dragon KnightWoE
Dragon Knight
Lifestealer
Lifestealer7jesu
52% · 170 games42% · 23 games
LycanSSS
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterPalantimos
45% · 67 games54% · 353 games
TinyDifference
Tiny
Clockwerk
Clockwerkso bad
51% · 355 games50% · 92 games
LeshracJANTER
Leshrac
Lion
Lionslimeyao
50% · 320 games52% · 287 games
Shadow Demonprblms
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct13:25
ASAKURA 45%One Move 55%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
52% · 253 games51% · 77 games
LifestealerWoE
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight7jesu
49% · 362 games56% · 117 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Visage
VisagePalantimos
58% · 81 game42% · 324 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Lich
Lichso bad
55% · 66 games50% · 195 games
Shadow Demonprblms
Shadow Demon
Magnus
Magnusslimeyao
47% · 192 games44% · 241 game
PhoenixJANTER
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3