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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 1:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 5 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Io
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
397 picks · 505 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
388 picks · 303 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 560 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
331 picks · 404 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
329 picks · 159 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
324 picks · 738 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
305 picks · 425 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yangon Galacticos 39%Execration 61%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 61%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1