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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 8 games
63%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 6 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Prada · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 27 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 24 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 15 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
396 picks · 501 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
385 picks · 302 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 560 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
329 picks · 401 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
327 picks · 158 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
322 picks · 737 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
305 picks · 422 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:12
Fusion 37%Heroic 63%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Fusion in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
42% · 26 games46% · 51 game
Earthshaker4nalog
Earthshaker
Magnus
MagnusLeostyle
58% · 226 games55% · 163 games
Dragon KnightYuma
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
42% · 115 games49% · 130 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Muerta
MuertaMichael
41% · 168 games56% · 66 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
55% · 88 games51% · 213 games
LionScofield
Lion
Game 2prediction correct32:30
Fusion 37%Heroic 63%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
49% · 18 games50% · 164 games
MedusaYuma
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
59% · 222 games49% · 233 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierLeostyle
47% · 349 games52% · 303 games
Dragon Knight4nalog
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixPrada
48% · 331 game49% · 278 games
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Muerta
MuertaMichael
46% · 183 games51% · 125 games
Ogre MagiKJ
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct29:38
Fusion 38%Heroic 62%
The model gave 62% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 53:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMnz
55% · 54 games44% · 250 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
56% · 287 games50% · 134 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLeostyle
52% · 75 games46% · 198 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerPrada
56% · 116 games45% · 181 game
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderMichael
48% · 439 games50% · 208 games
Dark WillowScofield
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 76%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3