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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Looking for Orgloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
38%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 8 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 7 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Michael · 5 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
60%

Looking for Org

Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 24 games
46%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 21 game
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 20 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
Sacred · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
393 picks · 500 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
383 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 559 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 398 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
325 picks · 158 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
320 picks · 735 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
304 picks · 418 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 37%
Hero pool strength53% Fusion
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total54% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:34
Fusion 48%Looking for Org 52%
The model gave 52% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 39:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMnz
51% · 265 games51% · 210 games
Weaverpayk
Weaver
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
45% · 118 games49% · 230 games
Ember SpiritPiPi
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLeostyle
51% · 64 games52% · 258 games
DoomVitaly
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixPrada
46% · 284 games49% · 238 games
MuertaMatthew
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMichael
52% · 340 games57% · 135 games
Ogre MagiYadomi
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed48:20
Fusion 45%Looking for Org 55%
The model gave 55% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Fusion in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
37% · 22 games45% · 229 games
Medusapayk
Medusa
Doom
DoomFrank
49% · 351 game55% · 365 games
TinyPiPi
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierLeostyle
47% · 464 games55% · 318 games
Centaur WarrunnerVitaly
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskPrada
49% · 261 game52% · 72 games
UndyingYadomi
Undying
Muerta
MuertaMichael
45% · 188 games60% · 302 games
LionMatthew
Lion
Game 3prediction missed29:7
Fusion 49%Looking for Org 51%
The model gave 51% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Fusion in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMnz
48% · 28 games42% · 117 games
LinaPiPi
Lina
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
55% · 147 games41% · 30 games
Phantom Assassinpayk
Phantom Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLeostyle
46% · 45 games46% · 142 games
TerrorbladeVitaly
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomMichael
52% · 186 games54% · 95 games
Naga SirenYadomi
Naga Siren
Phoenix
PhoenixPrada
51% · 169 games55% · 191 game
LionMatthew
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 54%
Series resultFusion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3