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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantasy Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 25 games
68%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 23 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 15 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 14 games
50%

Fantasy Gaming

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DM · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JP · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yor · 1 game
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
393 picks · 500 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
383 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 559 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 398 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
325 picks · 158 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
320 picks · 735 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
304 picks · 418 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total92% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:45
Heroic 78%Fantasy Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 57:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYuma
52% · 295 games50% · 241 game
WeaverJP
Weaver
Earthshaker
Earthshaker4nalog
44% · 60 games52% · 142 games
EnigmaArzenT
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixWisper
48% · 248 games50% · 301 game
TuskZxca
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
49% · 329 games46% · 361 game
BatriderYor
Batrider
Chen
ChenKJ
59% · 113 games
Game 2prediction correct61:18
Heroic 76%Fantasy Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuma
43% · 40 games51% · 253 games
BeastmasterArzenT
Beastmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
48% · 114 games57% · 43 games
LifestealerJP
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
57% · 103 games48% · 277 games
PhoenixZxca
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireKJ
43% · 233 games51% · 220 games
BatriderYor
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
52% · 303 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 92%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2