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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 11 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 7 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Antares · 7 games
86%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Squad1x · 6 games
83%
Underlord
Underlord
Noticed · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
80%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 12 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 11 games
18%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 11 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
40%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 10 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 500 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
381 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 557 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 396 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
321 picks · 157 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
319 picks · 733 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
302 picks · 415 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:22
Virtus.pro 63%9Pandas 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNande
51% · 154 games40% · 39 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
46% · 195 games54% · 372 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSquad1x
51% · 109 games53% · 205 games
Bristlebacklaise
Bristleback
Batrider
Batriderjesv
46% · 326 games51% · 74 games
LichSolo
Lich
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
50% · 223 games53% · 317 games
Lionlupsione
Lion
Game 2prediction missed16:21
Virtus.pro 60%9Pandas 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 48:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
50% · 173 games51% · 12 games
Wraith KingV-Tune
Wraith King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNande
59% · 120 games45% · 256 games
Doomlaise
Doom
Broodmother
BroodmotherNoticed
57% · 58 games46% · 101 game
Snipererase
Sniper
Muerta
Muertajesv
48% · 65 games40% · 43 games
Shadow Shamanlupsione
Shadow Shaman
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRein
60% · 43 games49% · 47 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2