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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 13 games
54%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 10 games
80%

9Pandas

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 11 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 10 games
20%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 10 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 10 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 9 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 500 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
380 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 556 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 391 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 728 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
316 picks · 156 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
297 picks · 412 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:29
Natus Vincere 62%9Pandas 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 47:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerShad
45% · 44 games49% · 127 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Magnus
MagnusSancity
50% · 162 games46% · 192 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyBOOM
54% · 302 games54% · 124 games
Bristlebacklaise
Bristleback
Pugna
PugnaKaori
53% · 114 games48% · 99 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
50% · 190 games47% · 270 games
Lionlupsione
Lion
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Natus Vincere 62%9Pandas 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
48% · 420 games48% · 171 game
TerrorbladeV-Tune
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanBOOM
51% · 48 games49% · 415 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusSancity
49% · 259 games48% · 158 games
Dawnbreakerlaise
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
49% · 353 games52% · 362 games
Shadow Demonlupsione
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionQBFY
53% · 345 games53% · 319 games
ClockwerkSolo
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed35:38
Natus Vincere 62%9Pandas 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 56:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSancity
56% · 216 games53% · 140 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyBOOM
54% · 371 game49% · 476 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
50% · 305 games49% · 214 games
Magnuslaise
Magnus
Tusk
TuskQBFY
38% · 223 games54% · 113 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKaori
47% · 34 games48% · 206 games
Muertalupsione
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 71%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3