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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The MongolZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 19 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
76%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 16 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 16 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
50%

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 5 games
20%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
JG · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 497 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
380 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 553 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 388 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 725 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
314 picks · 154 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
294 picks · 410 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
BOOM Esports 68%The MongolZ 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
43% · 152 games44% · 239 games
DoomJG
Doom
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
52% · 223 games46% · 210 games
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMac
53% · 99 games53% · 356 games
Shadow DemonHishge
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderTims
55% · 273 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiJaunuel
59% · 58 games
Game 2prediction correct30:27
BOOM Esports 67%The MongolZ 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightJaCkky
51% · 221 game47% · 350 games
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
51% · 160 games57% · 229 games
BristlebackJG
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierMac
46% · 267 games50% · 524 games
HoodwinkHishge
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderJaunuel
47% · 261 game
Lion
LionTims
48% · 194 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 79%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2