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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Essenceloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 14 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 11 games
82%

Team Essence

Zeus
Zeus
Varizh · 4 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
dalul · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
db- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
387 picks · 494 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
377 picks · 297 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 550 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 384 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 724 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 153 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
292 picks · 406 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:35
Aurora Gaming 95%Team Essence 5%
The model gave 95% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 46:00.
Game 2prediction correct36:17
Aurora Gaming 95%Team Essence 5%
The model gave 95% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 95%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2