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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 16 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 15 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
50%

Yangon Galacticos

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlord
Ksh · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 493 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
377 picks · 297 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 383 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 549 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 384 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 723 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 153 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
291 picks · 403 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:22
BOOM Esports 66%Yangon Galacticos 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
41% · 194 games57% · 358 games
TinyKsh
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierMac
45% · 231 game60% · 192 games
InvokerYoung PH
Invoker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
41% · 41 game
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
47% · 52 games
Lich
LichJaunuel
35% · 32 games
Game 2prediction correct29:19
BOOM Esports 67%Yangon Galacticos 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
45% · 32 games61% · 102 games
BristlebackKsh
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusFbz
42% · 40 games52% · 95 games
SniperYoung PH
Sniper
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
35% · 23 games
Pugna
PugnaTims
48% · 36 games
Lion
LionJaunuel
45% · 66 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 80%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2