?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 41 game
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 21 game
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
not me · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
rue · 17 games
71%
Largo
Largooften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 17 games
35%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 37 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 28 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
43%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
517 picks · 362 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
361 picks · 434 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
348 picks · 615 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 489 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
318 picks · 620 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 349 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
305 picks · 165 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
304 picks · 220 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:45
Team Spirit 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 59:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
48% · 184 games49% · 170 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Lina
LinaLarl
51% · 76 games58% · 78 games
ClinkzSumaiL
Clinkz
Doom
DoomCollapse
55% · 251 game55% · 315 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Windranger
Windrangernot me
44% · 356 games50% · 487 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
Clockwerkrue
43% · 313 games50% · 130 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed23:44
Team Spirit 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:01:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYatoro
59% · 51 game55% · 163 games
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
InvokerLarl
53% · 170 games54% · 402 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeCollapse
45% · 238 games52% · 216 games
LargoDavai
Largo
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
48% · 530 games52% · 135 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
43% · 234 games47% · 307 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2