DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
No Packet Lossloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Jigglinwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Packet Loss
Bristlebackoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
xsvampire · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Linaoften banned
MaTson · 1 game
Muerta
xsvampire · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Kidaro · 1 game
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Jigglin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
386 picks · 492 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 385 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
314 picks · 725 bans
Lion
314 picks · 151 bans
Gyrocopter
289 picks · 398 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 70%
Hero pool strength57% No Packet Loss
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% No Packet Loss
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:46
No Packet Loss 53%Jigglin 47%
The model gave 53% on No Packet Loss — the game was taken by Jigglin in 46:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinLowskill
Gyrocopter423
PuckMaTson
SniperCopy
TidehunterInfernal
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
JakiroKidaro
BatriderLelis
Dark Willowxsvampire
ClockwerkSe
Game 2prediction missed20:54
No Packet Loss 54%Jigglin 46%
The model gave 54% on No Packet Loss — the game was taken by Jigglin in 45:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterLowskill
Razor423
PuckMaTson
InvokerCopy
BeastmasterInfernal
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
WarlockKidaro
BatriderLelis
Clockwerkxsvampire
TuskSe
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Packet Loss · 54%
Series resultJigglin 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2