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DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pJonn · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%

Quantum Team

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 8 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 491 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
375 picks · 292 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 385 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 549 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 382 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
314 picks · 725 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 151 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
290 picks · 398 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:14
ASAKURA 50%Quantum Team 50%
The model gave 50% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
40% · 85 games54% · 148 games
Templar AssassinRvze
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterPalantimos
55% · 22 games59% · 30 games
Spectrebashka
Spectre
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
43% · 51 game64% · 45 games
Night StalkerAnkou
Night Stalker
Lion
Lionslimeyao
42% · 105 games50% · 64 games
ZeusFezor
Zeus
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiso bad
48% · 24 games
Game 2prediction correct32:11
ASAKURA 52%Quantum Team 48%
The model gave 52% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 28:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
49% · 151 game50% · 138 games
Dragon Knightbashka
Dragon Knight
Slark
Slark7jesu
51% · 54 games57% · 11 games
HuskarRvze
Huskar
Tidehunter
TidehunterPalantimos
47% · 52 games43% · 218 games
PangolierAnkou
Pangolier
Lich
Lichso bad
49% · 51 game58% · 108 games
PugnaFezor
Pugna
Magnus
Magnusslimeyao
52% · 167 games
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 54%
Series resultASAKURA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2