DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 1:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CSKA ESPORTSloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ASAKURA
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
Doomoften banned
pJonn · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
Lion
ariel · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
CSKA ESPORTS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
391 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
376 picks · 292 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 552 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 385 bans
Beastmaster
318 picks · 727 bans
Lion
313 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 270 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% CSKA ESPORTS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% CSKA ESPORTS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:9
ASAKURA 33%CSKA ESPORTS 67%
The model gave 67% on CSKA ESPORTS — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 28:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteCSKA ESPORTS · 67%
Series resultASAKURA 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1