DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Jigglinwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 17 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
Jigglin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
389 picks · 493 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 391 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 550 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 383 bans
Beastmaster
317 picks · 719 bans
Lion
312 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 264 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:35
Zero Tenacity 54%Jigglin 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Jigglin in 1:04:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 54%
Series resultJigglin 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1