Hokori vs Perro Negro — prediction DS2ОК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Hokoriloss 0:2

series probability

75%25%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Perro Negrowin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

Clockwerkoften banned

Gardick · 7 games

43%

Batrideroften banned

Genek · 6 games

50%

Medusasignature

Lumière · 6 games

67%

Muerta

Genek · 6 games

33%

Ogre Magisignature

Gardick · 6 games

67%

Beastmasteroften banned

Vitaly · 5 games

40%

Tuskoften banned

Gardick · 5 games

20%

Gyrocopteroften banned

Lumière · 4 games

25%

Perro Negro

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Clockwerk

396 picks · 494 bans

55%

Muerta

375 picks · 287 bans

51%

Tusk

367 picks · 401 bans

47%

Pangolier

346 picks · 555 bans

46%

Beastmaster

322 picks · 723 bans

52%

Batrider

320 picks · 384 bans

52%

Lion

312 picks · 148 bans

54%

Phoenix

291 picks · 258 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% Perro Negro

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total75% Hokori

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed10:32

Hokori 62%Perro Negro 38%

The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 36:25.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo