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DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blade breakersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 6 games
67%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 5 games
20%
Sven
Sven
Wits · 5 games
20%

Blade breakers

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cara · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
FeelinG · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Accel · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
396 picks · 494 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
375 picks · 287 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 401 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 555 bans
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
322 picks · 723 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 384 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 148 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
291 picks · 258 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:35
Fusion 71%Blade breakers 29%
The model gave 71% on Fusion — the game was taken by Blade breakers in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreMnz
47% · 7 games52% · 73 games
BristlebackbsK7-
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLeostyle
44% · 108 games53% · 115 games
Invokerblessed kid
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaPrada
51% · 93 games51% · 166 games
Crystal MaidenAccel
Crystal Maiden
Lion
LionMichael
49% · 146 games
Game 2prediction correct34:13
Fusion 71%Blade breakers 29%
The model gave 71% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 22:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLeostyle
50% · 74 games46% · 77 games
Linablessed kid
Lina
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMnz
50% · 295 games53% · 242 games
TinybsK7-
Tiny
Muerta
MuertaMichael
47% · 132 games49% · 247 games
BatriderAccel
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
56% · 65 games
Game 3prediction correct19:5
Fusion 70%Blade breakers 30%
The model gave 70% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 16:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaLeostyle
49% · 45 games55% · 61 game
UrsabsK7-
Ursa
Slark
SlarkMnz
46% · 20 games45% · 38 games
Queen of Painblessed kid
Queen of Pain
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMichael
59% · 26 games53% · 11 games
UndyingAccel
Undying
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
41% · 19 games
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 85%
Series resultFusion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3