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DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
мистер мораль · 11 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 9 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
56%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 7 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 7 games
57%
Underlord
Underlord
мистер мораль · 7 games
29%

9Pandas

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 11 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 10 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 10 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 9 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 9 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 9 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
jesv · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
398 picks · 493 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
373 picks · 287 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 403 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 555 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 384 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
321 picks · 723 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
311 picks · 147 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
291 picks · 256 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:42
4Pirates 49%9Pandas 51%
The model gave 51% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 46:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOtaker
52% · 163 games49% · 169 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Magnus
MagnusNattyNarwhal
54% · 131 game53% · 160 games
Bristlebacklaise
Bristleback
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
49% · 204 games48% · 179 games
Invokererase
Invoker
Muerta
Muertaariel
47% · 177 games50% · 42 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
55% · 224 games43% · 349 games
Hoodwinklupsione
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct27:48
4Pirates 50%9Pandas 50%
The model gave 50% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNattyNarwhal
50% · 116 games60% · 33 games
SpectreKiritych
Spectre
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerOtaker
46% · 39 games51% · 161 game
Bristlebacklaise
Bristleback
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
48% · 141 game53% · 241 game
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
52% · 173 games48% · 205 games
Muertalupsione
Muerta
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
48% · 205 games47% · 34 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 51%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2