DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Young Bloodloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kukuys
Marci
Palos · 7 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Young Blood
Earthshaker
MamangDaya · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Red · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Phoenix
LOyd · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
400 picks · 494 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 287 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 411 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 556 bans
Batrider
326 picks · 384 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 725 bans
Lion
311 picks · 146 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Young Blood
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Kukuys 64%Young Blood 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Kukuys 64%Young Blood 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Young Blood.
Game 3prediction correct
Team Kukuys 64%Young Blood 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 64%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3