DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Essencewin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Immortalloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Essence
Zeus
Varizh · 4 games
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
Mirana
Varizh · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Dark Seer
db- · 1 game
The Immortal
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
400 picks · 494 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 287 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 411 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 556 bans
Batrider
326 picks · 384 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 725 bans
Lion
311 picks · 146 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% The Immortal
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% The Immortal
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:32
Team Essence 45%The Immortal 55%
The model gave 55% on The Immortal — the game was taken by The Immortal in 39:44.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Essence 45%The Immortal 55%
The model gave 55% on The Immortal — the game was taken by Team Essence.
Game 3prediction missed
Team Essence 45%The Immortal 55%
The model gave 55% on The Immortal — the game was taken by Team Essence.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Immortal · 55%
Series resultTeam Essence 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3