DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 1:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
LFLooking for Orgloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Prada · 5 games
Snapfire
Michael · 5 games
Sven
Wits · 5 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 20 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 18 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
402 picks · 496 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 287 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 557 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 384 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 726 bans
Lion
311 picks · 146 bans
Phoenix
294 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 32%
Hero pool strength50% Looking for Org
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:4
Fusion 44%Looking for Org 56%
The model gave 56% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Fusion in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMnz
Dragon KnightPiPi
PangolierLeostyle
Tinypayk
BatriderMichael
TidehunterVitaly
Ogre MagiPrada
Shadow DemonMatthew
57% · 84 games
LichYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 61%
Series resultFusion 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1