DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
reshufleloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Türkiyewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
reshufle
No games played over 6 months.
Team Türkiye
Lich
Stoic · 9 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Tinysignature
G.T.I · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 6 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
402 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 557 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 384 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 725 bans
Lion
311 picks · 146 bans
Phoenix
294 picks · 255 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Türkiye
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:42
reshufle 47%Team Türkiye 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 41:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Türkiye · 53%
Series resultTeam Türkiye 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1