DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:1series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 0:1
reshuflewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
reshufle
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
401 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 556 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 383 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 724 bans
Lion
311 picks · 146 bans
Phoenix
294 picks · 254 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% reshufle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:26
MOUZ 91%reshufle 9%
The model gave 91% on MOUZ — the game was taken by reshufle in 34:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 91%
Series resultreshufle 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1