DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Hryvnialoss 0:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Jigglinwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
Lunaoften banned
paw · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 1 game
Jigglin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
401 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 285 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 556 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 382 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 722 bans
Lion
311 picks · 145 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Jigglin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Jigglin
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:12
Team Hryvnia 35%Jigglin 65%
The model gave 65% on Jigglin — the game was taken by Jigglin in 34:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteJigglin · 65%
Series resultJigglin 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1