DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
CSKA ESPORTSloss 0:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
4Pirateswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CSKA ESPORTS
No games played over 6 months.
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
мистер мораль · 10 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 9 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 7 games
Underlord
мистер мораль · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
399 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 283 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 556 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 722 bans
Lion
311 picks · 144 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% CSKA ESPORTS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:45
CSKA ESPORTS 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on CSKA ESPORTS — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteCSKA ESPORTS · 57%
Series result4Pirates 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1