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DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 1:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
ASAKURAloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 11 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
мистер мораль · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 9 games
67%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 7 games
57%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
мистер мораль · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 6 games
33%

ASAKURA

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pJonn · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
399 picks · 494 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
372 picks · 283 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 412 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 553 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
325 picks · 381 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
322 picks · 720 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
311 picks · 143 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
293 picks · 250 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:23
4Pirates 60%ASAKURA 40%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 41:20.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 60%
Series result4Pirates 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1