DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Essencewin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team TKloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Essence
Zeus
Varizh · 4 games
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
Mirana
Varizh · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Dark Seer
db- · 1 game
Team TK
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
399 picks · 494 bans
Muerta
372 picks · 283 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 412 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 553 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 719 bans
Lion
311 picks · 142 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 250 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team TK
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team TK
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Essence 47%Team TK 53%
The model gave 53% on Team TK — the game was taken by Team Essence.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam TK · 53%
Series resultTeam Essence 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1