DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 1:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KINGSloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kukuys
Marci
Palos · 7 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
KINGS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
399 picks · 493 bans
Muerta
372 picks · 282 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 412 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 553 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 717 bans
Lion
311 picks · 142 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 250 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:9
Team Kukuys 64%KINGS 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 26:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 64%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1