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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
OneJey · 4 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Panto · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Daxak · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
OneJey · 3 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
67%

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 20 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 17 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
435 picks · 527 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 521 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 569 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
367 picks · 286 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
361 picks · 401 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 171 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 728 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
319 picks · 144 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:17
Chimera Esports 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDaxak
46% · 117 games61% · 26 games
Spectrev1olent-
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
46% · 351 game52% · 129 games
SniperMirage
Sniper
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTA2000
46% · 305 games56% · 186 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Tusk
TuskPanto
47% · 281 game49% · 436 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOneJey
54% · 93 games51% · 370 games
Shadow DemonMalady
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct22:5
Chimera Esports 61%HULIGANI 39%
The model gave 61% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 17:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLorenof
50% · 95 games43% · 119 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
51% · 133 games48% · 130 games
Earth SpiritMirage
Earth Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleDaxak
49% · 20 games59% · 142 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
48% · 229 games47% · 66 games
LichMalady
Lich
Muerta
MuertaOneJey
48% · 197 games54% · 217 games
Lionqueezy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 68%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2