?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 26 games
31%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 24 games
42%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
50%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 35 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 28 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 22 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 21 game
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 18 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 521 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
438 picks · 537 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 568 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
367 picks · 281 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
361 picks · 400 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
346 picks · 172 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 728 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
319 picks · 144 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Passion UA
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:35
MOUZ 56%Passion UA 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 55:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
47% · 307 games54% · 47 games
Drow RangerCrystallize
Drow Ranger
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMikSa`
41% · 152 games57% · 235 games
Tinyniche
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingSupream^
51% · 148 games50% · 117 games
BrewmasterBatyuk
Brewmaster
Lich
LichFly
48% · 62 games46% · 166 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
58% · 110 games49% · 214 games
Gyrocopterkreker
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct23:10
MOUZ 58%Passion UA 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 20:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
48% · 404 games54% · 244 games
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
Visage
VisageMikSa`
44% · 91 game49% · 215 games
SvenCrystallize
Sven
Tiny
TinySupream^
53% · 485 games48% · 453 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
49% · 495 games52% · 394 games
Gyrocopterkreker
Gyrocopter
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFly
52% · 115 games51% · 284 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2