?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Toy Cartwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spiky Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Toy Cart

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Ulu · 2 games
100%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Op · 1 game
100%
Lich
Lich
Ulu · 1 game
0%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Xwy · 1 game
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Op · 1 game
0%

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
TK · 8 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 5 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hara · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 569 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 523 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 571 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
366 picks · 276 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 405 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
360 picks · 181 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 720 bans
53%
Invoker
Invoker
323 picks · 915 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Toy Cart
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:17
Toy Cart 46%Spiky Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Toy Cart in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYumeyume
53% · 100 games53% · 72 games
Bristleback生死
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
46% · 113 games53% · 110 games
WeaverManic
Weaver
Viper
ViperOp
46% · 53 games41% · 17 games
BaneHara
Bane
Lich
LichUlu
54% · 28 games49% · 95 games
Dark WillowTK
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct30:37
Toy Cart 47%Spiky Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 46:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYumeyume
43% · 144 games50% · 182 games
MedusaManic
Medusa
Doom
DoomOp
48% · 182 games45% · 105 games
Dawnbreaker生死
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyXwy
58% · 177 games51% · 73 games
Ogre MagiHara
Ogre Magi
Magnus
MagnusUlu
55% · 132 games50% · 275 games
LionTK
Lion
Game 3prediction missed44:25
Toy Cart 47%Spiky Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Toy Cart in 48:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYumeyume
59% · 114 games57% · 20 games
SpectreManic
Spectre
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXwy
47% · 62 games51% · 186 games
Doom生死
Doom
Magnus
MagnusOp
48% · 181 game46% · 245 games
RubickTK
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkUlu
48% · 213 games49% · 119 games
PugnaHara
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 58%
Series resultToy Cart 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3