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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 9 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 7 games
43%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
мистер мораль · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
20%
Underlord
Underlord
мистер мораль · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
0%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 11 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 10 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 9 games
56%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
38%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 587 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 527 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 573 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
371 picks · 182 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 407 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
362 picks · 271 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 713 bans
53%
Invoker
Invoker
331 picks · 922 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:3
4Pirates 38%9Pandas 62%
The model gave 62% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 21:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
34% · 15 games52% · 141 game
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
39% · 75 games50% · 186 games
Magnuserase
Magnus
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
54% · 250 games58% · 144 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Muerta
Muertaariel
44% · 106 games63% · 94 games
Grimstrokejesv
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
49% · 174 games46% · 55 games
LichSolo
Lich
Game 2prediction missed38:53
4Pirates 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 59:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
46% · 77 games45% · 152 games
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
54% · 208 games44% · 222 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
48% · 106 games50% · 304 games
Marslaise
Mars
Tiny
TinyPERDAN4IK
57% · 373 games53% · 237 games
Dark Willowjesv
Dark Willow
Lion
Lionariel
52% · 241 game48% · 90 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 66%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2