?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 33 games
55%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 19 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 16 games
75%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
LeBronDota · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 11 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
MikSa` · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 600 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
456 picks · 532 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 575 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 190 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
368 picks · 405 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
362 picks · 269 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
336 picks · 918 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 704 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:29
Passion UA 50%Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBatyuk
47% · 232 games51% · 382 games
Dragon KnightDaaD-
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
Pangolierniche
41% · 307 games56% · 152 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallize
47% · 220 games53% · 282 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Lion
LionFernans
49% · 214 games62% · 88 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
50% · 69 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Game 2prediction correct33:38
Passion UA 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 1:06:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCrystallize
48% · 172 games44% · 324 games
Dragon KnightDaaD-
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
54% · 141 game53% · 85 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Tiny
Tinyniche
50% · 490 games49% · 283 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
46% · 411 games58% · 261 game
Shadow DemonPablo
Shadow Demon
48% · 261 game
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct44:18
Passion UA 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightniche
54% · 267 games50% · 383 games
MorphlingDaaD-
Morphling
Spectre
SpectreCrystallize
60% · 26 games46% · 166 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierBatyuk
46% · 338 games46% · 112 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderFernans
50% · 332 games54% · 121 game
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Ogre Magi
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
50% · 181 game51% · 362 games
LionPablo
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 53%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3